Discounting of reward sequences: a test of competing formal models of hyperbolic discounting

Humans are known to discount future rewards hyperbolically in time. Nevertheless, a formal recursive model of hyperbolic discounting has been elusive until recently, with the introduction of the hyperbolically discounted temporal difference (HDTD) model. Prior to that, models of learning (especially reinforcement learning) have relied on exponential discounting, which generally provides poorer fits to behavioral data. Recently, it has been shown that hyperbolic discounting can also be approximated by a summed distribution of exponentially discounted values, instantiated in the μAgents model. The HDTD model and the μAgents model differ in one key respect, namely how they treat sequences of rewards. The μAgents model is a particular implementation of a Parallel discounting model, which values sequences based on the summed value of the individual rewards whereas the HDTD model contains a non-linear interaction. To discriminate among these models, we observed how subjects discounted a sequence of three rewards, and then we tested how well each candidate model fit the subject data. The results show that the Parallel model generally provides a better fit to the human data

The Neural Basis of Predicting the Outcomes of Imagined Actions

A key feature of human intelligence is the ability to predict the outcomes of one’s own actions prior to executing them. Action values are thought to be represented in part in the dorsal and ventral medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), yet current studies have focused on the value of executed actions rather than the anticipated value of a planned action. Thus, little is known about the neural basis of how individuals think (or fail to think) about their actions and the potential consequences before they act. We scanned individuals with fMRI while they thought about performing actions that they knew would likely be rewarded or unrewarded. Here we show that merely imagining an unrewarded action, as opposed to imagining a rewarded action, increases activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, independently of subsequent actions. This activity overlaps with regions that respond to actual unrewarded actions. The findings show a distinct network that signals the prospective outcomes of one’s possible actions. A number of clinical disorders such as schizophrenia and drug abuse involve a failure to take the potential consequences of an action into account prior to acting. Our results thus suggest how dysfunctions of the mPFC may contribute to such failures

Status of nearshore finfish stocks in south-western Western Australia Part 3: Whiting (Sillaginidae): NRM Project 09003

The whiting family (Sillaginidae) is common in nearshore waters of south-western Western Australia (WA) where it is highly valued by recreational and commercial fishers. The importance of these species to recreational fishers is reflected in this category of fishes being ranked as the most or 2nd most retained finfish species group by boat- and shore-based fishers in several recreational fishing surveys in WA. Whiting are commercially important in a number of fisheries, with total state catches averaging over 200 tonnes per annum since 1980. The composition of the whiting catch, however, is largely unknown, with a number of whiting species potentially contributing substantially to the overall catch of this family. The recreational and commercial fisheries that capture whiting can therefore be considered very data-limited, due to the lack of species-specific data that prohibit a robust assessment of the status of the stocks of the different whiting species. The main purpose of this report is to determine the species composition of whiting landings caught recreationally and commercially in south-western WA. This report then investigates the stock status of the key (most abundant) whiting species identified in the recreational catch

Nicotine and cotinine exposure from electronic cigarettes: a population approach

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are a recent technology that has gained rapid acceptance. Still, little is known about them in terms of safety and effectiveness. A basic question is how effectively they deliver nicotine; however, the literature is surprisingly unclear on this point. Here, a population pharmacokinetic model was developed for nicotine and its major metabolite cotinine with the aim to provide a reliable framework for the simulation of nicotine and cotinine concentrations over time, based solely on inhalation airflow recordings and individual covariates [i.e., weight and breath carbon monoxide (CO) levels]. METHODS: This study included ten adults self-identified as heavy smokers (at least one pack of cigarettes per day). Plasma nicotine and cotinine concentrations were measured at regular 10-min intervals for 90 min while human subjects inhaled nicotine vapor from a modified e-cigarette. Airflow measurements were recorded every 200 ms throughout the session. A population pharmacokinetic model for nicotine and cotinine was developed based on previously published pharmacokinetic parameters and the airflow recordings. All of the analyses were performed with the non-linear mixed-effect modeling software NONMEM(®) version 7.2. RESULTS: The results show that e-cigarettes deliver nicotine effectively, although the pharmacokinetic profiles are lower than those achieved with regular cigarettes. Our pharmacokinetic model effectively predicts plasma nicotine and cotinine concentrations from the inhalation volume, and initial breath CO. CONCLUSION: E-cigarettes are effective at delivering nicotine. This new pharmacokinetic model of e-cigarette usage might be used for pharmacodynamic analysis where the pharmacokinetic profiles are not available

The sloppy model universality class and the Vandermonde matrix

In a variety of contexts, physicists study complex, nonlinear models with many unknown or tunable parameters to explain experimental data. We explain why such systems so often are sloppy; the system behavior depends only on a few `stiff' combinations of the parameters and is unchanged as other `sloppy' parameter combinations vary by orders of magnitude. We contrast examples of sloppy models (from systems biology, variational quantum Monte Carlo, and common data fitting) with systems which are not sloppy (multidimensional linear regression, random matrix ensembles). We observe that the eigenvalue spectra for the sensitivity of sloppy models have a striking, characteristic form, with a density of logarithms of eigenvalues which is roughly constant over a large range. We suggest that the common features of sloppy models indicate that they may belong to a common universality class. In particular, we motivate focusing on a Vandermonde ensemble of multiparameter nonlinear models and show in one limit that they exhibit the universal features of sloppy models.Comment: New content adde

Discriminating Formal Representations of Risk in Anterior Cingulate Cortex and Inferior Frontal Gyrus

Considerable debate persists around the definition of risk. Depending on the area of study, the concept of risk may be defined as the variance of the possible outcomes, the probability of a loss, or a combination of the loss probability and its maximum possible loss. Mounting evidence suggests the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), including the surrounding medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), and the anterior insula/inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) are key neural regions that represent perceived risks. Yet it remains unclear which of these formalisms best accounts for the pattern of activation in brain regions representing risk, and it is also difficult to disentangle risk from value, as both contribute to perceived utility. To adjudicate among the possible definitions, we used fMRI with a novel gambling task that orthogonalized the variance, loss probability, and maximum possible loss among the risky options, while maintaining a constant expected value across all monetary gambles to isolate the impact of risk rather than value. Here we show that when expected value is controlled for ACC and IFG activation reflect variance, but neither loss probability nor maximum possible loss. Across subjects, variance-related activation within the ACC correlates indirectly with risk aversion. Our results highlight the variance of the prospective outcomes as a formal representation of risk that is reflected both in brain activity and behavior, thus suggestive of a stronger link among formal economic theories of financial risk, naturalistic risk taking, and neural representations of risk

Status of nearshore finfish stocks in south-western Western Australia: Part 2: Tailor

The status of the nearshore finfish resource in the West Coast Bioregion (WCB) of Western Australia (WA) was largely unknown prior to this study. Previously, declining catches of several species had highlighted the risk to their sustainability and the need for greater certainty about the status of this popular resource. Recently, the risk substantially increased due to recent changes to the management of demersal scalefish, which are likely to result in a shift in targeting towards nearshore species. This increase in fishing pressure will be on top of any increase due to the continuing human population growth in the WCB

Readiness to Succeed Preparing the Scholar-Practitioner

This report expands on a previous working group’s effort to clarify the alignment of existing scholarship around doctoral education with how students move through the process at Walden University (Salter et al., 2013). Following up on the recommendations in that report, the current working group was charged with understanding students’ readiness or preparedness to move through these stages/phases across the entire student timeline from prospect to graduate. Additionally, the group attempted to map the services currently in place to support that journey while identifying opportunities to improve it

Call-Tracking Data and the Public Health Response to Bioterrorism-Related Anthrax

After public notification of confirmed cases of bioterrorism-related anthrax, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Emergency Operations Center responded to 11,063 bioterrorism-related telephone calls from October 8 to November 11, 2001. Most calls were inquiries from the public about anthrax vaccines (58.4%), requests for general information on bioterrorism prevention (14.8%), and use of personal protective equipment (12.0%); 882 telephone calls (8.0%) were referred to the state liaison team for follow-up investigation. Of these, 226 (25.6%) included reports of either illness clinically confirmed to be compatible with anthrax or direct exposure to an environment known to be contaminated with Bacillus anthracis. The remaining 656 (74.4%) included no confirmed illness but reported exposures to “suspicious” packages or substances or the receipt of mail through a contaminated facility. Emergency response staff must handle high call volumes following suspected or actual bioterrorist attacks. Standardized health communication protocols that address contact with unknown substances, handling of suspicious mail, and clinical evaluation of suspected cases would allow more efficient follow-up investigations of clinically compatible cases in high-risk groups